Last week’s 5-4 Supreme Court decision striking down New York Governor Cuomo’s restrictions on the size of religious gatherings has potentially significant implications for control of the pandemic. The majority opinion cited the First Amendment.
Not surprisingly, reactions to calls for small and restricted Thanksgiving holiday gatherings have been mixed. A gathering via Zoom is a poor substitute for a shared meal, but far safer. With the anticipated availability of efficacious vaccines, next year’s holiday might be a return to normalcy.
No one is running the circus as every metric for the COVID-19 pandemic soars in most states and in Europe. In a vacuum of national coordination, state and local governments and their public health agencies are imposing ever more drastic measures. I summarize as follows: the virus has a plan, but we do not.
The implications of the Biden-Harris victory for public health are profound. As the states continue to struggle with controlling the pandemic, cohesive coordination among the Administration and the national public health agencies will be beneficial.
Writing on November 1, the topics for comment are numerous. Let’s start with the pandemic in Colorado. The latest modeling report from the COVID-19 modeling team provides a clear and certain projection; within the first two weeks of this month, the April peak of people hospitalized with COVID-19 (N=901) will be passed.
Quoting George Box, the British statistician once again: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The most recent updating of the core SEIR model (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) incorporates a single variable, termed “transmission control,” to capture success in reducing infectious contacts among Coloradans.
Another worrisome week: the pandemic is surging across the United States and Europe; the Johnson and Johnson vaccine trial was halted because of a possible adverse event in a participant; Eli Lilly’s trial of a monoclonal antibody therapy was paused because of safety concerns; and remdesivir was found to be ineffective.
Over the last week, there were further revelations about meddling by the Administration in public health measures proposed by the CDC, and specifically a requirement for universal wearing of masks in public commercial transportation, including airplanes.
The White House outbreak further emphasizes the public health significance of super-spreader events and the necessity for ongoing measures to guard against them.
With many colleges and universities back in session for a month or more, the high incidence shift to younger ages continues. A New York Times survey shows a disturbing and worsening picture with more than 130,000 campus-related cases since the pandemic's start.
This Labor Day stands alone: a pandemic is in progress; ash from the Cameron Fire falls in the backyard; and a pending swing from 100 degree high temperatures during recent days to a forecasted 70 degree drop with snow on the day after Labor Day. And there is more...
Last week, the NASEM held a two-day workshop on airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2, a highly controversial topic with critical implications for strategies and policies directed at controlling the pandemic.
The imprint of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health (and all else) was immediate and will be lasting. Is this the time to start revisioning public health as we continue to contend with the pandemic and look to the future? I think so, and offer a viewpoint along with long-term colleagues in an article in the AJPH.
Epidemics set their course. Our public health interventions purposefully alter that course with varying success, depending on the virulence of the infectious agent, the force of the measures taken and the public’s adherence to them. As K-12 schools, colleges and universities reopen, Colorado’s epidemic is smoldering.
The global tobacco pandemic has been in progress for a century, dating to the 1913 release of Camel, the first mass-marketed cigarette brand. In the United States, the Surgeon General attributes 480,000 premature deaths annually to tobacco, a number greatly exceeding the current death toll from COVID-19 of over 150,000 deaths. But, this is a comparison that should not be made.
The rationale for reopening schools has been grounded in the inarguable direct benefits for children of being in school, and the indirect benefits of freeing parents for work and enhancing food security for children from impoverished families.