Modeling Results

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Colorado team's modeling documentation can be viewed at Colorado COVID-19 Mathematical Model Documentation (the SEIR model) and Regional Model Documentation. All available modeling is linked below, and additional updated Regional Models and Colorado County Population Data Dashboards are available. 

State models

January 3, 2022 Modeling Group Statement


November 3, 2021 Modeling Report


September 15, 2021 Modeling Report


Regional models

November 18, 2021 Regional Models for Colorado


October 26, 2021 Regional Models for Colorado


September 22, 2021 Regional Models for Colorado


Additional reports

January 3, 2022 COVID-19 Vaccine Race & Ethnicity Data Report


October 12, 2020 Stakeholder Modeling Website Feedback Report


July 6, 2020 Colorado COVID-19 Boundaries & Mobility-Identified Communities Report


About the models

When Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) needed to respond to the rapidly worsening COVID-19 pandemic, they needed data and projections of the pandemic’s course based upon Colorado data. A team was quickly assembled by the Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) to collaborate with CDPHE on epidemic modeling—the basic approach for generating the needed information for decision-making. 

These models are mathematical representations that reflect how viruses affect populations: infecting those who are susceptible, making some ill and in need of hospital and critical care, and leading to death for some. The models are used to examine how different measures, like closing restaurants and bars, slow and diminish the epidemic. Remembering that a model is a simulation of the world, none “are correct” but they should be useful and allow people to make hypotheses about the trajectory of a disease and the impacts of different policies and behavior changes. 

About the team

In response to the CDPHE request, Dean Samet put together an interdisciplinary and interinstitutional team that brought complementary expertise for epidemiological modeling including other experts from our school, the University of Colorado School of Medicine, the University of Colorado Boulder, the University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado State University. 

In addition to ColoradoSPH Dean Jon Samet, MD, MS, the team includes:

  • jimi adams, PhD, a social scientist​ and associate professor of health and behavioral sciences at CU Denver 
  • Sabina Altus, research associate in the Department of Applied Mathematics in the College of Arts & Sciences at CU Boulder
  • Jude Bayham, PhD, assistant professor of agricultural and resource economics at Colorado State University
  • David Bortz, PhD, associate professor of applied mathematics at CU Boulder, a mathematical biologist who has used his experience in HIV infection spread to hone the model
  • Andrea Buchwald, PhD, research associate in the Center for Innovative Design & Analysis at ColoradoSPH
  • Elizabeth Carlton, PhD, MPH, associate professor in the Department of Environmental & Occupational Health at ColoradoSPH, who brings experience in infectious disease epidemiology and disease control
  • Katie Colborn, PhD, MSPH, assistant professor in the Department of Surgery at the CU School of Medicine and in the Department of Biostatistics & Informatics at ColoradoSPH, an expert in modeling vector-borne diseases like malaria
  • Bailey Fosdick, PhD, associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Colorado State University
  • Debashis Ghosh, PhD, professor and chair of the Department of Biostatistics & Informatics at ColoradoSPH
  • Parker Jackson, founder and lead engineer at Vanadata
  • David Jacobson, chief data scientist at Vanadata
  • Irina Kasarskis, MPH, senior professional research assistant in the Department of Environmental & Occupational Health at ColoradoSPH
  • Richard Lindrooth, PhD, professor in the Department of Health Systems, Management & Policy at ColoradoSPH
  • Talia Quandelacy, PhD, MPH, assistant professor in the Department of Epidemiology at ColoradoSPH
  • Tatiane Santos, PhD, UPenn Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics Post-Doctoral Fellow and adjunct instructor in the Department of Health Systems, Management & Policy at ColoradoSPH