Modeling Results

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Colorado team's modeling documentation can be viewed at Colorado COVID-19 Mathematical Model Documentation (the SEIR model) and Regional Model Documentation. All available modeling is linked below, and additional updated Regional Models and Colorado County Population Data Dashboards are available. 

State models


August 25, 2022 Modeling Report

 

June 23, 2022 Modeling Report

 

May 12, 2022 Modeling Report

 

Regional models


November 18, 2021 Regional Models for Colorado

 

October 26, 2021 Regional Models for Colorado

 

September 22, 2021 Regional Models for Colorado

 

Additional reports


January 3, 2022 COVID-19 Vaccine Race & Ethnicity Data Report

 

October 12, 2020 Stakeholder Modeling Website Feedback Report

 

July 6, 2020 Colorado COVID-19 Boundaries & Mobility-Identified Communities Report

 

About the models


When Colorado Gov. Jared Polis and the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) needed to respond to the rapidly worsening COVID-19 pandemic, they needed data and projections of the pandemic’s course based upon Colorado data. A team was quickly assembled by the Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) to collaborate with CDPHE on epidemic modeling—the basic approach for generating the needed information for decision-making. 

These models are mathematical representations that reflect how viruses affect populations: infecting those who are susceptible, making some ill and in need of hospital and critical care, and leading to death for some. The models are used to examine how different measures, like closing restaurants and bars, slow and diminish the epidemic. Remembering that a model is a simulation of the world, none “are correct” but they should be useful and allow people to make hypotheses about the trajectory of a disease and the impacts of different policies and behavior changes. 

About the team


In response to the CDPHE request, Dean Samet put together an interdisciplinary and interinstitutional team that brought complementary expertise for epidemiological modeling including other experts from our school, the University of Colorado School of Medicine, the University of Colorado Boulder, the University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado State University. 

Coordination, management, and communications

Meghan Buran MPH

Senior Professional Research Assistant

Jonathan Samet MD, MS

Dean & Professor

Aki Suzuki BA

Student Worker

Modeling team

Jude Bayham PhD

Assistant Professor

Andrea Buchwald PhD

Research Associate

Brittney Contreras BSc

Professional Research Assistant

Bailey Fosdick PhD, MS

Associate Professor

Debashis Ghosh MS, PhD

Chair (BIOS Dept), Professor

Irina Kasarskis MPH

Senior Professional Research Assistant

Talia Quandelacy PhD

Assistant Professor

Kaitlyn Whitney BS

Student Assistant

Emma Wu MS

Senior Professional Research Assistant

Health data and analytics

Marcelo Perraillon PhD

Associate Professor

Tatiane Santos PhD, MPH

Senior Research Instructor, UPenn Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics Post-Doctoral Fellow

Alexandra Storaci MBA

Research Assistant

Alumni

jimi adams PhD

Associate Professor

Sabina Altus PhD

Postdoctoral Researcher

Kathryn Colborn PhD, MSPH

Assistant Professor

Alex Fout PhD

Consulting Statistician

David Johnson BS

Research Assistant Student Asst VI

Glen Mays PhD, MPH

Professor, Chair (HSMP Dept)